Why is it in the news?
1. While giving an interview to the American correspondent Lex Freidman, the Indian Prime Minister said that India and China were working to restore conditions to how they were before 2020. The incident along the border created significant tensions between our countries. He said that our cooperation was not just beneficial but also essential for global stability and prosperity. He said, “Since the 21st century is Asia’s century, we want India and China to compete in a healthy and natural way.” He said that when two neighbouring countries existed, occasional disagreements were bound to happen but our focus was to ensure that these differences did not turn into disputes. Instead of discord, dialogue could build a stable cooperative relationship that served the best interest in both the nations.
Relation between India and China in the Past
1. Both countries in the past had contributed to each other. There was no hostility between them in recorded history. The old record suggests that both countries together contributed 50% of the world's GDP. At one time, Buddhism was the most prominent religion of China. There had been trade relationships and people to people exchange between both countries since ancient times. Noted scholars like Fa-Hsien, Huen- Tsang and Itsing visited India at different times.
2. When China was brought under communist regime by Mao Zedong in 1949, India was the first non-communist country to recognise it. India established diplomatic relations with China in 1950. It always insisted upon giving China a permanent seat in the security council of the UN, instead of the Kuomintang Government of Taiwan. Jawaharlal Nehru believed that India-China detente could stabilise Asia and keep the superpowers at bay. In 1954, both countries signed the Panchsheel agreement which included respect for each other’s territorial integrity and sovereignty; non-aggression; non-interference in each other’s internal affairs; equality and mutual benefit and peaceful co-existence. India conceded China’s suzerainty over Tibet and recognised it as an autonomous region of China. However, the bonhomie between the two countries ended in 1962 when China attacked India on the western and eastern front. It captured forcefully the Aksai Chin area of J & K. It entered NEFA (Arunachal Pradesh). However, within a month, it retreated unilaterally from the eastern front. Critics are of the view that China wanted to assert its regional dominance in Asia. It wanted to humiliate India which had become unquestionably the leader of the third world countries. The war caused mistrust and apprehension of India towards China. India detonated nuclear tests in 1974 and 1998 contending that there was a perpetual threat of China. Moreover, China- Pakistan Axis has been a lurking danger over the sovereignty and territorial integrity of India.
Areas of Conflict
1. The former Defence Minister, George Fernandes declared that China, not Pakistan, was the biggest threat to India. He cited occupation of Aksai Chin, support to Pakistan by providing nuclear and military aid and infrastructure build up of China near the LAC. Similarly, former Chief Defence Staff, Bipin Rawat accused China as the biggest threat to India’s sovereignty and territorial integrity. He cited the gradual encroachment of China into Indian territory and Chinna-Pakistan collusion. Thus, he said while Pakistan is a chronic threat, China is the real long term challenge. Thus, the combination of Chinese Military power, economic influence and territorial ambition make it India’s most formidable long term adversary. The important areas of conflict between India and China are :
Border Disputes - China does not recognise the MacMohan line drawn between India and Tibet in 1914 Shimla Convention.
China had forcefully captured a 38000 sq km area called Aksai Chin in J & K in the Indo-China war in 1962. It constructed highways connecting its province Xinjiang to Tibet.
China claims the entire Arunachal Pradesh of India, calling it the part of South Tibet.
China has made infrastructure like railways, highways and air bases along LAC.
China is constructing the China-Pakistan economic corridor (CPEC) which passes through Pakistan occupied Kashmir, thereby violating India’s sovereignty.
China has also pursued the policy of strings of pearls whereby it has constructed and developed naval bases at ports like Hambantota (Sri Lanka), Chittagong (Bangladesh), Kyaukpyu (Myanmar), Gwadar (Pakistan), Djibouti (Horn of Africa) to encircle India. China has also invested in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR) under belt and road initiative. It has also initiated debt trap diplomacy whereby in case of failure of debt repayments assets of borrowing countries are either purchased or pawned. These tactics of China in IOR have limited the scope of Indian diplomacy in these regions.
China has provided nuclear missile technology, JF-17 fighter jets to Pakistan and it seems that China wants to wage a proxy war with India. It should be noted that Pakistan is dependent upon China for its 70% military hardwares.
China has established its predominant power in the South China Sea and Indian Ocean by the deployment of nuclear submarines and aircraft carriers. The presence of the powerful Chinese navy is a constant threat to India’s sovereignty.
Military asymmetry between India and China is another threat. India spends $81 billion on its military, China spends $230 billion annually. The Chinese regular army consists of more than 20 lakhs against India’s 14 lakhs. Moreover, China has manufactured hypersonic missile systems and high grades of aircrafts like the Chengdu J-20 and J-36 stealth fighters.
Cyber and hybrid warfare threats - Chinese hacking groups target Indian defence, healthcare and IT sectors. They spread disinformation campaigns by manipulating Indian social media.
The bilateral trade between India and China in FY24 stood at 118.40 billion (GTRI). China has once again become India’s top trading partner in FY24 surpassing the United States. China had a 15% share in India’s total imports. India imported goods worth 675.42 billion from the world including goods worth 101.74 billion from China. There is a widening trade deficit of $83 billion in 2023 with China. This is because of the impediments for most of India’s agricultural products, pharmaceuticals, IT/ITeS in the Chinese market. Thus, there is economic leverage to China vis-a-vis India.
What should India do to mitigate the threats of China?
1. Engagement in military level talks with Chinese to de-escalate tensions.
2. An effort should be made to demarcate the boundaries between India and China.
3. Deployment of Indian Army on vulnerable points so that Chinese incursions can be checked in time.
4. India should focus upon indigenous production of goods and services so that its dependence upon Chinese imports is minimised.
5. Since, Chinese economy is five times greater than that of India in nominal GDP and two and half times greater than India in PPP terms, India should make all efforts to increase its growth rate by investing in infrastructure, FDI, providing employment opportunities to youths and increased allocation in educational and healthcare sectors. Moreover, the demographic dividend is favourable to India so much so that it would continue till 2049 against China’s in 2031. Dependency load of China would further increase leading to the decrease in its economic growth. India can catch up to China after 2031 in economic growth and development.
6. India should reinforce its alliance with Japan, Australia and the US on the one hand to minimise the preponderant influence of China in the Indo-Pacific region, it should strengthen its ties with Russia because India is highly dependent upon military hardwares. Moreover, looking into the close relationship between China and Russia, it is imperative to have strong ties with Russia to neutralise its close relationship with China.
7. Looking into the huge investment in the Chinese military, India should also match the military expenditure in proportion to its size of the economy.
8. India should upgrade its missile technology. It should develop hypersonic missiles to match China. It should further strengthen Mountainous corps in the Himalayan region. The 4000 km long borders between India and China should be further reinforced with latest technology and logistics so that Chinese could be tackled effectively and no incursion is allowed into the Indian territory. It should be noted that India has more experience of warfare in mountainous and hilly terrains than the Chinese army.
Areas of reconciliation
1. Both countries can make reconciliation by the resolution of conflict over border disputes. Buffer zone should be earmarked on the border of MacMohan line so that no untoward incident recur. There should be agreement on patrolling protocols, better communication between two governments at different levels to prevent further clashes.
2. Multilateral cooperation - Both countries can strengthen BRICS, SCO and G-20. They can also pursue the policy of de dollarization in order to reduce the dependence upon the US dollar. They can also raise the restructuring of the World Bank and IMF where the developed countries have greater benefits.
3. China should also stop the policy of proxy war against India through Pakistan. It should reduce giving military hardwares and advanced technology to Pakistan. Similarly, it should stop vetoing in the security council with regard to Pakistani sponsored terrorist activities in the Kashmir Valley.
4. Both countries can cooperate in the field of artificial intelligence, semiconductors and cyber security.
5. Both countries should promote cultural tourism and people to people exchanges.
Conclusion
1. Trust deficit between the two countries must be removed through the continued dialogue. They should understand that disputes and wars are not solutions to their problems. Any escalation of tension between two countries would not be beneficial for Asian solidarity and world peace.
2. Both countries are rising powers. Both countries have huge populations. Both need peace for expediting developmental works.
3. However, India should keep its military, diplomatic, economic and nuclear preparedness vis-a-vis China so that it should not be caught napping like in 1962 Indo-China war. It must be noted that it is a deterrence that heralds peace between countries more effectively than anything else.
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