Implications of India becoming the fourth largest economy in the world?

 Why is it in the news? 

1. According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank, India now ranks the fourth largest economy after the United States, China, and Germany. It has surpassed Japan. 

2. As of now, in 2025, the nominal GDP of the USA is $28 trillion , China $18 trillion, Germany$ 4.8 trillion. India $4.2 trillion. India is projected to become the third largest economy by 2027 surpassing Germany. However, there are challenges in the Indian Economy in areas like income inequality, job creation, inadequate educational and health facilities and lack of inclusive growth. 

Causes for the rise of Indian Economy 

1. The rise in the Indian Economy has been due to the consistent annual GDP growth of 6-8% over the past decade. Higher growth in the services, manufacturing, Fintech, Digital infrastructure and startups has boosted GDP growth. 

2. Secondly, since India has a young population having the median age of 28 years, thereby, providing a large and growing workforce. 

3. Thirdly, a rising middle class has increased demand for goods and services. 

4. India has witnessed structural reforms like GST, reforms in insolvency and bankruptcy code, digital India, Make in India, production linked incentives and improvement in ease of doing business. 

5. Financial inclusion through Jana Dhana Yojana, UPI and DBT has further increased economic participation of the masses. The robust growth in the services sector further boosted the Indian economy so much as it now contributes more than 50% of India’s GDP. India has become now a global player in software, AI, and digital services. Increased spending on infrastructure further led to the growth of Highways, Ports, Airports and digital connectivity leading to the cost reduction in logistics.  Rising foreign direct investments and indigenous capital investments further led to the investment and boosting of different sectors of the economy. 

Implications of India’s economic rise 

1. Greater strategic autonomy and global influence. India can assert greater strategic autonomy in foreign policy by balancing between the western powers like the US, EU and UK and other developed countries of the world on the one hand and Russia, China and Asian countries on the other. Moreover, India can assert more global influence on the UN Security Council, IMF , World Bank, WTO and World groupings like G-20, BRICS, QUAD and SCO. 

2. Counterbalance to China - India is emerging as a democratic counterweight to China in the Indo-Pacific region. India would be able to challenge China’s debt diplomacy by providing more economic aid to the littoral states of the Indian Ocean. India can now provide more development aid to third world countries. The vigorous economic assistance to these countries would catapult India as a global leader. 

3. A stronger economy would allow India higher defence spending. This would modernise further our military set up. 

4. Shift in global supply chains - As global firms seek alternatives to China, a robust Indian economy would attract more foreign investments. Sectors like electronics, pharmaceuticals, textiles and semi conductors would see greater investments. Further, most of the multinational companies operating in China would shift their location to India because of the comparative low wages and ease of doing business. Further, a rising Indian Economy would instill confidence among its policy makers and they would sign free trade agreements with countries like EU, Canada,and other developed countries, thereby expanding India’s access to new markets. India has already signed an FTA with Australia, UK and UAE.  A rising India may demand fair and inclusive globalisation and removal of protectionism. 

5. Emergence of a multipolar world - A rising India, would reduce the dominance of the US or China, thereby promoting a multipolar global order. It can assert the restructuring of global institutions like the UN security council, IMF, World Bank and WTO. It can act as a balancer in a polarised world. It can promote issue based coalitions rather than permanent blocks. 

6. Championing the global South - India can become the voice of the developing countries by advocating equitable climate finance, access to vaccines and technology, fair trade and development policies. With economic strength India will assert more effectively on global issues including border disputes with China, maritime security in the Indo Pacific,a bigger role in West Asia and Africa. It can effectively deal with the menace of terrorism. The recent operation Sindoor launched by India on 7th-10th May 2025 is an explicit example. The Indian airforce struck deep inside Pakistan and damaged various air bases and terror outfits. 

Challenges Ahead

1. There is  huge income inequality in India. According to estimates, India has become the most unequal society in the world. Top 10% of the people have amassed more than 50% of the wealth. 

2. There is acute unemployment ranging between 7-9%. It is to be noted that there is unemployment rate of 23% among youths between age 18-24 years. It is essential to provide employment opportunities to the youths so that India can reap the demographic dividends to the maximum. 

3. There are huge infrastructural gaps between the Urban and Rural areas. Rural areas suffer from power shortage. This may have an impact upon agricultural activities.

4. Global economic shocks on account of war between countries can disrupt the supply chain. Similarly, protectionism and especially the US tariff policy would have an impact upon the export of goods and services. 

5. Literacy rate in India is 74% according to the 2011 census. India currently spends 4.6% of GDP on education. It must be increased to 6-8% of GDP, focusing on science, technology, engineering and mathematics (STEM) and vocational training. There is a need to achieve 90% literacy and 50% higher education enrollment by 2040 from the present 27%. 

6. It is also necessary to increase healthcare spending from the present 2.1 % of GDP to 5% so that the poorest of the poor should get healthcare facilities. The present human development index of 0.644 should be increased to 0.768 of China’s level by 2040. Universal healthcare would boost workforce productivity. 

7. There is a need to accelerate urbanisation with affordable housing and job creation so that rural migrants are absorbed. 

8. There is also a need to increase female labour force participation from the present 23% to 60% as it obtains in countries like China, South Korea and Japan. 

9. Regional disparities must be tackled on priority basis to achieve equitable development in all states. It should be noted that the per capita income of Bihar is less than 5 times that of Delhi and 10 times that of Goa.

10. India must reverse the emigration of 1 million skilled workers annually by providing them a slew of incentives. 

Conclusion 

1. India has become the fourth largest economy of the world in nominal GDP. It is to become the third largest economy by surpassing Germany in 2027-28. In terms of purchasing power parity China is the biggest economy having $35 trillion followed by the US having $28 trillion and India $15 trillion. Thus, on the scale of economy, there is a huge difference between India and China. The Chinese economy is almost 4.5 times greater than the Indian economy. In PPP terms, the Chinese economy is 2.5 times greater than the Indian Economy. 

2. In order to catch the Chinese economy, India must maintain 7-8% annual GDP growth for the next 20 years, increasing the rate of productivity in agricultural and manufacturing, raising gross enrolment ratio in higher education from 27% to 50% by 2035, increasing the rate of urbanisation from the present 36% to 50% by 2040. It is necessary to reduce trade deficits by boosting exports and increasing the share of the manufacturing sector from the present 16-17% to 27-28% by 2035. 

3. We must note that the size of the economies of both India and China was the same in the 1980s. China opened its economy in 1979 under the leadership of Deng Hsiao Ping. It was because of the continuous 10% growth rate of China from 1980 to 2010 that the Chinese economy increased manifold and became the second largest economy in nominal GDP and the biggest economy in PPP terms. The reasons for high economic growth were 45% gross fixed capital formation, enhanced productivity and agriculture and manufacturing sector, export oriented growth and huge investments from indigenous capital and foreign. So, India must increase its gross fixed capital formation percentage from the present 32% to 40% by increasing saving rates, exporting more than importing, huge investments from foreign direct investments and indigenous investment and finally increasing productivity of agriculture and manufacturing sectors. The share of manufacturing in GDP of 17% must be enhanced to 26-28%. Similarly, the productivity in the agricultural sector must be increased from the present 4.2% to more than 5% by investing in research and development and by patenting new strains of high yielding varieties of seeds of wheat, rice, oilseeds, pulses, cotton, sugarcane and millets. 

4. India must strive to reduce income inequality, infrastructure gaps between urban and rural areas, increasing women’s participation in labourforce to 60%. 

5. India must expand its military power by doubling the present spending of $84 billion annually in order to catch $296 billion annual spending of China. 

To sum up , the GDP growth at 6.5% in 2024-25 must be enhanced in coming years by pumping huge investments from FDI and indigenous capital investment, reducing fiscal deficits below 5% of the GDP, promoting exports to reduce the trade deficit and skill upgradation to enhance labour productivity. It should be noted that the democratic resilience, one billion internet users by the end of 2025 to improve connectivity, digitalisation of the economy reinforced by computerization and cultural diversity are the unique advantages of India. Thus, India needs continued execution of sustained growth of its economy to achieve at par with China within 15-20 years.  

Advisory Power of the Supreme Court

 Why is it in the news?

1. In response to the timeline limits of 1-3 months on future bills for the Governor of a state to take action fixed by the Supreme Court in judgement on 8th April 2025, the President of India sought advice from the Supreme Court of India under article 143. The Supreme Court held that the Governor had three choices under article 200 of the constitution - To give assent to the bill passed by the state legislature, to withhold the bill and to reserve the bill for the consideration of the President of India. The court ruled that a Governor has a maximum of 1 Month to withhold assent on the aid and advice of the state cabinet. It held that a President has three months to reserve a bill for his consideration against the advice of the cabinet. The court further stated that a maximum of three months is given to return the bill with a message specifying reasons if the Governor withholds assent to the cabinet advice. It further held that a Governor must grant assent to a bill repassed by the state legislature under article 200 within a maximum of one month. The court ruled that a Governor cannot reserve a bill for the President’s consideration when the proposed law which was earlier rejected by him is presented for the second time by the state legislature. The court further warned that any failure by a Governor to comply with a timeline would invite judicial review. Thus, the court emphasised that the Governor cannot exercise its personal discretion if a house passes a same bill again and returns to him for consent. The top court ruled that the pending bill before the Governor for so many years was deemed to have been passed. 

2.Exercising powers vested upon the President of India under article 143 (1), the President made a 14 point reference to the Supreme Court for its consideration and opinion. This 14 Questions are as follows

• What are the constitutional options before a Governor under article 200?

• Is the Governor bound by the Council of Ministers advice under article 200?

• Is the Governor discretion under article 200 justiciable ?

• Does article 361 provide absolute immunity from judicial review of the Governors Action under article 200?

• Can judicial orders impose timelines for the Governor’s action under article 200?

• Is the President’s discretion under article 201 justiciable ?

• Can judicial orders impose timelines for the President’s action under article 201?

• Is the President required to seek Supreme Court advice under article 143 when a bill is reserved under article 201?

• Are decisions under articles 200 and 201 justiciable before a bill becomes law and can courts adjudicate a bill’s contents pre-enactment?

• Can article 142 substitute the constitutional powers of the President of the Governor?

• Is a state law valid without the Governor’s assent under article 200?

• Can substantial constitutional questions be referred to a five judge bench under article 145 (3)?

• Can article 142 override constitutional or statutory provisions?

• Is article 131, the exclusive jurisdiction for Union State disputes or can other jurisdictions like article 32 apply?

What is the advisory power of the Supreme Court?

1. The advisory jurisdiction of the Supreme Court under article 143 is a relic of the Government of India Act 1935. It vested the Governor General with the discretionary power to refer any question of law of public importance to the federal court for its opinion.  

2. A similar provision is available in various constitutions of commonwealth countries. In Canada, the Governor in Council may refer questions of public importance to the Supreme Court for its advisory opinions. In Pakistan, the constitution under article 186 allows the President to refer questions to the Supreme Court for advisory opinions. Similar provision with regard to seeking advisory opinion by the President from the Supreme Court obtains in the constitution of Sri Lanka. Approximately 20-25 countries have provision for a presidential reference, mostly from commonwealth countries. However the US Supreme Court consistently declined to provide any advisory opinion to an executive as it would violate the strict separation of powers envisaged in its constitution. 

3. As per article 143, the President may refer any question of law or fact of public importance to the Supreme Court for its opinion. The President makes such a reference based on the advice of the Union Council of Ministers. Article 145 of the constitution provides that any such reference shall be heard by a bench of minimum 5 judges.    

The  Supreme Court may provide its opinion after such hearing as it thinks fit. The opinion is not legally binding on the President and does not hold the precedential value  for the courts to follow subsequent cases. However, it carries a strong persuasive value and is usually followed by the courts and the executives. 

4. According to article 143(2), the President may refer to the Supreme Court with regard to disputes arising out of any pre-constitutional treaty, agreement, covenant, engagement , sanad or other similar instrument which is excluded from the original jurisdiction of the Supreme Court. It should be noted that in such cases, the Supreme Court must tender its opinion to the President. However, the President is not bound to accept the opinion of the Supreme Court in this regard. 

History of Presidential reference 

1. Since the implementation of the constitution on 26th January 1950, the President of India sought opinion of the Supreme Court 15 times

 on matters of public importance. 

2. The President sought the opinion of the Supreme Court on the validity of Delhi Laws Act 1912 concerning the scope of delegated legislation. The question was whether such delegation violated the separation of powers or exceeded legislative authority under the constitution. The court ruled that the delegated legislation is permissible as long as the legislature retains essential legislative functions and provides clear guidelines to the executives. The court cautioned against unchecked delegation and emphasised that the legislature cannot abdicate its core law making powers.  

3. The President of India referred the question regarding the Kerala education bill 1957 passed by the Kerala State legislature. The question referred to was whether provisions of the bill violate the rights of minorities under article 30? Could the state impose regulations on minority educational institutions without undermining their autonomy. The Supreme Court opined that the state has the authority to regulate educational institutions including those run by the minorities in the interest of educational standards and public welfare. However, such regulations must not destroy the minority character of the institutions or unduly interfere with their autonomy under article 30 of the constitution. 

4. In the Berubari case, the Government sought the opinion of the Supreme Court as to whether the Government could implement the agreement between India and Pakistan with regard to the transfer of the parts of Berubari to Pakistan in exchange for enclaves of Pakistan.  The question was whether Parliament had the authority to cede India territory without amending the constitution. The Supreme Court opined that a transfer of Indian territory to a foreign country or acquisition of new territories required constitutional amendment under article 368. 

5. In the Sea Custom Act, 1878, The President asked the opinion of the Supreme Court in 1962 as to whether the provisions of the Sea Customs Act violate the federal distribution of powers under the seventh schedule? Whether the Union's Power to regulate custom duties constitutionally valid? The Supreme Court opined that the Union has exclusive authority over custom duties and foreign trade under Union list of the seventh schedule. The court upheld the provisions of the Sea Custom Act.

6. In the Keshav Singh case (1964), the President sought the opinion of the Supreme Court as to whether the privileges of the state legislatures under article 194 override judicial authority or fundamental rights. The Court opined that legislative privileges are subject to the constitution including fundamental rights. The assembly could not claim absolute immunity to punish for contempt in a manner that violated judicial authority or individual rights. Thus, the Supreme Court resolved the conflict between the legislature and judiciary by ensuring that legislative privileges were not absolute and must align with fundamental rights and constitutional principles. 

7. In the Presidential election, 1974, the President of India referred the matter to the Supreme Court as to whether the Presidential election could proceed if there were vacancies in the electoral college due to dissolve state assemblies? The Supreme Court opined that the Presidential election could be held notwithstanding vacancies in the electoral college.   

8.  The President referred to the Supreme Court with regard to the special courts bill, 1978 proposed to establish special courts to try offences committed during the emergency. The bill aimed to expedite trials of political figures and others accused of abuses during the emergency. The President asked whether the establishment of the special courts was constitutionally valid. The Supreme Court upheld the validity of the bill. However, the court emphasised that such a court must adhere to natural justice, fair trial and judicial independence. 

9. In the Kaveri water dispute (1992) , the President referred the matter to the Supreme Court as to whether the Supreme Court had the jurisdiction to review or intervene in the tribunal's interim orders.  The Supreme Court opined that its jurisdiction could not be completely ousted even by the inter-state water dispute. The court refrained from modifying the tribunal's orders but clarified its supervisory role. It highlighted the importance of cooperative federalism in resolving interstate disputes.   

10. In the Ram Janm Bhumi Babri Masjid case (1993), the President sought the opinion of the Supreme Court as to whether there was a Hindu temple or religious structure at the site of the Babri Masjid before its construction? The court held that the question was politically sensitive and against the principle of secularism as it favoured one religious community over another. The court noted that answering such questions would not serve a constitutional purpose and could exacerbate communal tensions. The court deemed it unnecessary and superfluous.  

11. In the third judges case (1998), the President sought the opinion of the Supreme Court when the judgement in the second judges cases (1993) established the collegium system. The reference sought to address ambiguities in the appointment process for the Supreme Court and high court judges particularly the role of Chief Justice of India and the collegium. The Supreme Court clarified that the Chief Justice of India must consult  a collegium of senior judges (typically the 4 senior most judges of the SC) and that the executive’s role is limited to raising objections, not proposing names. The opinion emphasised judicial primacy in appointments while ensuring a consultative process. 

12.  In the Gujarat assembly election matter 2002, the President referred to the Supreme Court as to the authority of the ECI to decide the timings of elections under article 174 and article 324. The question was could the state government override the decision of the election commission of India. The court ruled that the decision of the election commission of India on election timing was final provided that it was based on reasonable grounds of ensuring free and fair elections. The state government could not compel early elections against the ECI’s assessment. 

13. In the Punjab Termination of Agreements Act,2004, the President sought the opinion of the Supreme Court when the Punjab state legislature enacted the Punjab Termination of Agreement Act 2004 which sought to terminate water sharing agreements with Haryana related to Sutlej Yamuna link canal. The President asked the Supreme Court whether the said Punjab termination of agreements Act 2004 constitutionally valid? Could a state unilaterally terminate inter-state agreements without violating federal principles? The Supreme Court held that the said Punjab Act was unconstitutional as it violated the principles of federalism and the sanctity of inter-state agreements. Thus, the Act was struck down and Punjab was directed to adhere to the water sharing agreements.

14. In the Gujarat Gas Act, 2012, the President of India referred to the constitutional validity of Gujarat gas (regulation of transmission, supply and distribution) Act, 2001. The question arose from disputes over whether states could legislate on natural gas which fails under the union list of the seventh schedule. Was the state legislation ultra vires the constitution? The Supreme Court opined that only the Union Government could legislate on natural gas, thereby nullifying conflicting state laws. The opinion of the Supreme Court re-enforced the Union Government's exclusive authority over critical resources like natural gas. Thereby, clarified federal divisions of power. 

15. In the 2G spectrum case (2012), The president sought the opinion of the Supreme Court when it cancelled 122 telecom licenses in the 2G spectrum scam, citing irregularities in allocation. The Government asked whether auction was the only permissible method for allocating natural resources? Could the government adopt other methods like first come first serve for resource allocations without violating the constitution? The Supreme Court opined that auctions are not a constitutional mandate for all natural resource allocations. The method of allocation depends on the nature of the resource and public interest but it must be transferred, fair and non-arbitrary. The court emphasised that the state, as a trusty of natural resources, must follow principles of equality and public trust. 

16. In the national judicial appointment commission, NJAC 2015 - when the Supreme Court struck down the national judicial appointment commission acts 2014 and the 99th constitutional amendment in 2015 declaring them unconstitutional for violating judicial independence and the basic structure of the constitution, the President referred the Supreme Court as to whether the collegium system could be reformed to enhance transparency and accountability. The Supreme Court declined to provide a detailed advisory opinion. It reaffirmed the primacy of the collegium system in judicial appointments. 

17. In the Tamil Nadu Governor case, 2025, the President referred the matter to the Supreme Court on 13th May 2025 when the two judge bench set the timeline for giving assent to the bill passed by the State Legislature by the Governor and the President of India. The court invoked article 142 to deemed the bills as having received assent. The reference sought clarity on the authority of judiciary to impose timelines and justiciability of gubernatorial and presidential actions. The President listed 14 points of reference to the Supreme Court. The decision of the Supreme Court is still awaited. 

Conclusion 

Presidential references under article 143 have played a critical role in clarifying constitutional ambiguities and resolving complex issues of public importance in India. These references made by the President of India to the Supreme Court have shaped India’s constitutional jurisprudence; balance the powers of the legislature, executive and judiciary; upheld the principles of federalism and fundamental rights. However, the Supreme Court is not bound to give opinion on matters referred to by the President if the questions sought are vague, hypothetical or political in nature.

What is Monsoon in India?

 Why is it in the news?

1. According to India Meteorological Department (IMD), the Southwest Monsoon is likely to reach Kerala on May 27, earlier than the usual date of June 1. Thus, it is the first time since 2009 that Monsoon would arrive earlier. 

2. The Monsoon typically covers the entire country by July 8. It starts withdrawing from northwest India around September 17 and ends by October 15. IMD clarified that there is no direct relationship between the onset date and the total rainfall over the country during the season. The Monsoon arriving early and late in Kerala does not mean it will cover other parts of the country accordingly. It is characterised by large scale variability and global regional and global features. 

3. According to IMD, the forecast for 2025 Monsoon season is above normal cumulative rainfall, thereby ruling out the possibility of El Nino conditions which are associated with below normal rainfall in the Indian subcontinent. 

4. If India has 87 cm annual rainfall it is called normal. If rainfall is less than 90% of the average of 87 cm annual rainfall, it is called deficient. Between 90% to 95% rainfall is called below normal while rainfall between 105% and 110% is called above normal more than 110% is considered excess rainfall. 

5. Monsoon is crucial for India’s agricultural sector which supports the livelihood of about 42.3% of the population and contributes 18.2% of the GDP. In addition, a good monsoon is essential for replenishing reservoirs critical for drinking water and power generation across the country. 

What is Monsoon?

1. Monsoon refers to the seasonal reversal of winds accompanied by significant rainfall driven by the pressure difference between the Indian subcontinent and the Indian ocean. The word monsoon has been derived from the Arabic word Mausim which means season. The scientists are of the view that monsoon is nothing but the reversal of the wind patterns. The south east trade wind crosses the equator and becomes southwest wind because of the coriolis effect in the summer season and this moisture laden wind causes heavy rainfall in India, south Asia and Southeast Asia

2. In summer, when the land heats up faster than the ocean, it creates a low pressure zone over northern India. The moisture laden winds from the southwest moved towards mainland India and this caused heavy rainfall. 

3. There are two types of Monsoons in India- Southwest Monsoon during summer season and Northeast Monsoon in winter season. 

Southwest monsoon has two branches: the Arabian Sea branch and Bay of Bengal branch. It contributes 70-90% annual rainfall in India. It begins in Kerala usually on 1st June and then it covers the entire country by mid July. It weakens by September. It started withdrawing from Northwest India. It gradually retreats from Northern and Central India by mid October. The Monsoon completely withdraws from southern India by November or early December. The retreating Southwest Monsoon overlaps with the North East Monsoon bringing significant rainfall to Tamilnadu, coastal Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka and Kerala. 

Northeast Monsoon : It covers the months of October-December in India. Reversal of winds leads to 10-20% annual rainfall in India. While crossing the Bay of Bengal the northeast wind picks up the moisture and causes heavy rainfall in Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka and Kerala. Tamil Nadu receives about 50-60% of its annual rainfall during this period. 

4. An important feature of the monsoon in India is its variability. It should be noted that there is less variability in annual rainfall in those areas which witness heavy rainfalls compared to those areas which get scanty annual rainfall. For example, the areas of Meghalaya state has lesser variability of annual rainfall than the area in Rajasthan or particularly in Jaisalmer. The variability percentage of rainfall is calculated by dividing the deviation of the mean rainfall by average rainfall multiplied by 100 The deviation of the mean rainfall Average rainfall100 . For example if the average (mean) annual rainfall of Punjab is 75 cm (by taking the average rainfall of the past 10 years) and if the annual rainfall in 2024 is 35 cm, the standard deviation is 40 cm. So, according to the above formula, 4075100 = 53%. Thus, the annual variability is 53%. 

Different theories of origins of Monsoons in India

1. Classical theory propounded by Sir Edmund Hailley - According to this theory, the Monsoon originates in India on account of differential heating of land and sea. In summer, the Indian subcontinent heats up faster than the Indian Ocean. This creates pressure ingredients. Thus, the moisture laden winds blow from the high pressure belt of the Indian Ocean to the low pressure belt of the Indian mainland, causing heavy rainfall. This is called the SouthWest Monsoon. In the winter season, the land cools faster than the ocean. Thus, the winds blow from the high pressure belt of Indian landmass to the low pressure belt of the Indian ocean. It is called Northeast Monsoon since it blows on the mainland, it is dry unless it crosses the Bay of Bengal. 

2. Limitations - Although high temperature and the consequent low pressure takes the northwest in its grip from the middle of April onwards,no rainfall starts in Northern India till the middle of June. 

3. Dynamic Theory - Propounded by Hermann Flohn, According to this theory in summer ITCZ (InterTropical Convergence Zone) which is a low pressure belt near the Equator, shifts northward over India due to the apparent movement of the Sun. This creates a low pressure zone or monsoon trough over Northern India and the Gangetic plains. This monsoon trough attracts moisture laden winds from the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal leading to heavy rainfall. In winter, the ITCZ moves south and the monsoon trough weakens causing the retreat of Southwest Monsoon and the onset of the Northeast monsoon. 

4. Limitation - The above theory does not take into account the upper atmospheric circulation of jet streams and the southern oscillation. 

5. Jet stream theory - This theory was propounded by Joseph Pedlosky. According to this theory,  The monsoon in India is influenced by the seasonal movement of Jet streams. In winter, the subtropical westerly jet stream dominates over northern India, thereby blocking Monsoon. In summer, the jet streams shift northward, allowing the tropical easterly jet stream to form over south India. The easterly jet stream strengthens the Monsoon by enhancing the flow of moist southwest winds and supports the development of the Monsoon trough. 

6.Limitations -While this theory explains the role of Tibetan plateau as the heat source and focuses on upper air dynamics, it does not fully explain surface level wind pattern or oceanic influences. 

7. Tibetan Plateau Theory - According to this theory, the Tibetan plateau acts as a high altitude heat source in summer, thereby, intensifying the Monsoon. It is situated at 4000 meter altitude. Its area is 1000 km wide in the East and 600 km in the West covering the distance of 2000 km between the east and west. The huge mass of Tibetan plateau and high altitude attracts 2-3 degree C more insolation than adjoining areas. This creates pressure gradients between the land (low pressure) and the Indian ocean (high pressure) cooling in moist southwest winds. The Himalayas play a key role by blocking dry and cold winds from central Asia and forcing moist southwest winds to rise and condense causing heavy rainfall. 

 

How Monsoon in India is affected

The Indian Monsoon is influenced by a variety of factors. These factors can lead to variations such as excessive rainfall, deficient rainfall, floods or droughts, thereby impacting agriculture, water resources and overall the Indian economy. The following factors are described below 

1. El Nino - Southern Oscillation (ENSO) - Warmer sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern pacific ocean weaken the trade wind thereby weakening monsoon by altering global wind patterns,thereby, reducing pressure gradient over India. Under normal conditions the Peru is the cold water current while over the western pacific (Borneo, Indonesia and Eastern Australia), the ocean current is warm and deep. The occurrence of El Nino reverses the condition and therefore develops warm conditions over the eastern pacific ocean (Peru and Chile Coast) and cool conditions in the western pacific (Australia, New Guinea and Indonesia). Whenever this warm ocean current (El Nino) is produced near the Peru coast, the amount of precipitation along the coastal areas of South America is usually high, while the eastern coast of Australia, New Guinea and Indonesia record drought conditions. 

The shifting of atmospheric circulation over the southern pacific region is known as southern oscillation. It is a precursor to the occurrence of  El Nino events. It involves a periodic fluctuation in air pressure between the western and eastern tropical pacific ocean. It is defined as the difference in air pressure between Tahiti (in the eastern Pacific and Darwin) (Australia) in the western Pacific. So the southern oscillation index is pressure at Tahiti- pressure at Darwin. Positive SOI is high pressure over Tahiti and low pressure over Darwin indicates La Nina conditions. Negative SOI indicates low pressure over Tahiti and high pressure over Darwin. This indicates El Nino conditions. This El Nino condition suppresses convection over the Indian Ocean resulting into weak monsoon in India while positive SOI (La Nina) enhances convection over the Indian ocean leading to the stronger monsoon in India. Thus, SOI helps in Monsoon prediction and early warning of droughts and floods in India. 

2. La Nina - When the pacific sea surface temperature becomes cool , the monsoon is strengthened because of the stretching of the trade wind. This increases heavy rainfall in India. ENSO is a major driver of annual monsoon variability, sometimes reducing southwest monsoon by 10-20%.  

3. Indian ocean dipole (IOD) - Positive IOD is caused when the sea surface temperature is enhanced in the Arabian sea thereby strengthening southwest monsoon. On the other hand, the sea surface temperature of the Arabian sea becomes cooler and the eastern Indian ocean around Indonesia and Australia becomes warmer, the monsoon gets weakened leading to reduced rainfall. It should be noted that a positive IOD can offset El Nino’s negative effect while a negative IOD can exacerbate drought conditions and may lead to scanty rainfall in India. 

4. Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) - It causes intra seasonal variability by modulating rainfall over 30-60 days cycles. Active MJO enhances rainfall while suppressed phases of MJO cause dry spells or breaks in the Monsoon. The longer period of Monsoon breaks impact crop growth and water availability.

5. Climate change - Global warming increases land and ocean temperature, thereby altering land sea temperature and pressure gradient that drives the monsoon. Warmer temperatures and intensify low pressure systems over India, thereby increasing extreme rainfall leading to floods. Studies suggest that reduced snow cover on the Tibetan plateau and Himalayan glaciers has further weakened the heating effect of the plateau, which is the driving force of the Monsoon. Similarly, the aerosol pollution and Greenhouse gas emission are further weakening the monsoon. This may contribute to the deficient rainfall in coming years.  

6. The delay in the shifting of subtropical westerly jet streams northward may have postponed the onset of monsoon in Northern India. Similarly, a weakened easterly jet stream in summer can reduce the strength of South west monsoon winds.

7. In addition, high pressure systems or unusual atmospheric patterns in northern India can block monsoonal winds causing prolonged dry spells.

8. Regional and local factors - It has been observed that deforestation in the Western Ghat has caused reduced rainfall in Peninsular India.  Similarly, rapid urbanisation has caused urban heat islands in metropolitan cities causing the alteration in the local wind patterns, thereby impacting the rainfall. 

9.Changes in sea surface temperature increase cyclone frequency and its intensity and thus, brings heavy rainfall in Tamilnadu, Andhra Pradesh and Odisha because of the frequent rise of tropical cyclones and depression in the Bay of Bengal. Studies have shown that North East Monsoon cyclones in the winter season have become more intense in the Bay of Bengal thereby causing heavy rainfall in the coastal region of India. It has also been observed that since 2000 there have been prolonged dry spells or frequent extreme rainfall events. 

Impact of Monsoon on the Indian Economy 

1. A normal monsoon ensures the increase in farm incomes, rural demand for goods and overall growth of economic activity. It stabilises food prices by ensuring sufficient supply and keeps inflation in check. 

2. Since agriculture contributes 18.2% India’s GDP and 42.3% people are engaged in agriculture, a normal southwest monsoon enhances economic growth of India. 

3. A deficient Monsoon causes food inflation and overall weakening of the Indian economy. 

4. A normal monsoon is necessary for the replenishment of water reservoirs and recharging of ground water, vital for irritation, drinking water and hydro power. 

5. Since, India is still 45% of its land rain-fed, A normal monsoon is necessary for the overall growth of Indian Economy. The deficient monsoon leads to droughts, crop failure and food insecurity. 

6. A normal monsoon is necessary for the growth of agro based industries. A deficient Monsoon may affect rural demand, thereby impacting the Indian Economy. 

7. Poor monsoons lead to increased government spending on relief activities subsidies and crop insurance. 

8. Excessive Monsoonal rainfall causes erosion of topsoil, thereby reducing the fertility of the soil. 

Conclusion

Monsoon is the lifeline of India. Our agriculture activities are completely dependent upon annual monsoonal rainfall. The monsoon in India originates by a complex of factors. No single factor fully explains the origin of the monsoon. It impacts the overall economy of our country. However, the Southwest Monsoon in India is erratic and limited to four months from June to September. It accounts for 70-90% annual rainfall in India while the Northwest monsoon accounts for only 10-15% annual rainfall and is mostly restricted to the coastal regions of TamilNadu and Andhra Pradesh. Any deficient or excessive monsoon leads to drought or floods in major portions of India. 

What is Operation Sindoor?

 Why is it in the news?

1. India targeted nine locations in Pakistan and POK. The locations included Bahawalpur, Muridke, Sialkot, Muzaffarabad, Kotli, Bagh, Bhimber, Gulpur and Chak Amru. India claimed that strikes targeted the infrastructure of terrorist groups like Jaish-e-Mohammad (JeM) and Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT), killing more than 100 terrorists. 10-12 members of the family of dreaded terrorist Azhar Masud  were killed in the operation at Bahawalpur. No Pakistani military facilities were targeted. The operation was described as focused, measured and non-escalatory. 

2. Pakistan retaliated by firing 8 missiles targeting Jammu including the airport, Gurudwara and Jammu University. It resorted to heavy shelling in areas like Poonch and Kupwara. Hence, India expanded operation Sindoor on May 8-9 targeting military installations of Pakistan. India intercepted Pakistani drones and missiles targeting Jammu, Pathankot, Uddhampur and border security force camp in Ramgarh, Jaisalmer.

What is Operation Sindoor?

1. Operation Sindoor was a series of precision military strikes launched by the Indian armed forces on May 7, 2025, targeting 9 terrorist camps in Pakistan and Pakistan occupied Kashmir. The operation involved the use of advanced weaponry such as Brahmos cruise missiles, SCALP missiles and Indo Israeli sky striker loitering munitions. The strike aimed at destroying the infrastructure of terrorist groups like Jaish-e-Mohammad and Lashkar-e-Taiba. India tried to avoid attacking Pakistani military bases to minimise conflict. In the operation more than 100 terrorists were killed, including those terrorists who were involved in hijacking of IC-814 and Pulwama terrorist attack. 

Why did India launch Operation Sindoor against Pakistan?

1. India launched Operation Sindoor against terrorist camps in Pakistan and Pak occupied Kashmir in retaliation for terrorist attack on 22nd April 2025 in Pahalgam, killing 26 tourists and injuring a large number of people. The operation demonstrated India’s military prowess and zero tolerance policy towards terrorism. The operation also sent a clear message to Pakistan and the World community that India can act decisively to protect its sovereignty and national integrity. 

Implications of operation Sindoor

1. Escalation of tensions - Border areas on either side of India and Pakistan suffered a lot of casualties. At least 15 civilians were killed in Poonch district of Jammu & Kashmir. Pakistan used 400 drones of Turkish made to intrude 36 locations from Leh to Sir Creek. In response Indian armed forces launched strikes on four air defence sites in India. Meanwhile BSF killed 7 terrorists who were trying to infiltrate into India. 

To retaliate Pakistani attack on military installations and civilians in India, India launched a series of air strikes using Brahmos missiles destroying a number of military installations inside Pakistan. It destroyed the air defence system of Lahore. 

2. India declared that any act of terrorism on the soil of India would amount to an act of war and so India would do everything to dismantle the terrorist networks within Pakistan and PoK.

3. Solidarity of opposition parties with ruling party - All opposition parties extended support to the Government to fight against terrorism in Pakistan. However, they accused the Government of India of violating Shimla Agreement concluded in 1972, which rules out third party involvement in matters relating to India-Pakistan. The attacks on terrorist camps in Pakistan fueled anti-Indian sentiments. The attack was labelled as heinous aggression by India. 

4. International reactions - The United States, China, EU, Saudi Arabia, Iran and other countries urged restraint. The US played a key role in brokering the ceasefire. 

Why did both countries agree to a ceasefire?

The ceasefire became effective on 10th May 2025 from 5 PM onwards after four days of intense military exchanges. Several factors contributed to this decision.

• Military reverses of Pakistan - India inflicted serious damages on Pakistani air bases like Skardu, Sargodha, Jaicobabad and Bholari and terror infrastructure of Jaish-e-Mohammad and Lashkar-e-Taiba. The loss of air defence systems and radars made Pakistan’s air space defence untenable, prompting its military to seek de-escalation. Moreover, many Pakistani missiles were intercepted by India’s -400 system. This asymmetry prompted and pressured Pakistan to negotiate with India. The DGMO of Pakistan talked to Indian counterpart and requested the immediate halting of military escalation. 

• US mediation - The US played a pivotal role to broker ceasefire. Both security of state Marco Rubio and Vice President J D Vance engaged with Indian and Pakistani leaders. The US President said that after a long night of talks mediated by the US, India and Pakistan had agreed to a full and immediate ceasefire. 

• The US reportedly tied a 1.3 billion dollar IMF loan to Pakistan’s compliance with the ceasefire exerting economic pressure. Pakistan appreciated the US for facilitating the ceasefire. The Prime Minister of Pakistan said that Pakistan accepted the ceasefire in the interest of regional peace. 

• Nuclear bluff - The heightened escalation of tension on account of military reverses of Pakistan pushed it for nuclear commands alerts, thereby, raising global fears of nuclear confrontation between India and Pakistan. Since, both India and Pakistan are nuclear countries, prudence prevailed upon them to de-escalate the tension. Moreover, the heavy civilian casualties and economic strain upon Pakistan further pushed it for de-escalation. 

Conclusion 

1. Operation Sindoor marked a significant departure of India from its earlier stand with regard to Pakistan supported terrorist groups in Jammu & Kashmir. 

2. India declared that henceforth any terrorist activities supported by Pakistan into the soils of India would amount to an act of war. The operation showcased India’s military and strategic capabilities. The precision of Brahmos cruise missiles attack and dismantling of infrastructures of terrorist groups within Pakistan was noteworthy. The operation further showed that India has better and favourable air strike facilities vis-à-vis Pakistan. India has demonstrated to the international community that it is capable of safeguarding its sovereignty and territorial integrity. It is hoped that several measures like keeping Indus water treaty in abeyance, ban on SAARC Visa, sealing of Indian Pakistan border at Atari-Bagha, downgrading of diplomatic missions and finally Sindoor operation would help in controlling Pakistan supported terrorist activities within India. 

3. India further clarified that the ceasefire will have no effect upon the previous measures that the Government of India had taken against Pakistan. It also refuted the mediation of the US for the ceasefire. Instead, it held that both the DGMO of Pakistan and India talked directly to bring a ceasefire without the involvement of a third party. In spite of the ceasefire, the Government directed the security forces to remain in ready position and to retaliate any misadventure by Pakistan.