The Chola Empire - The Great Naval Power in Medieval India

 

Why is it in the news?

1. Paying glowing tributes to the military might and administrative acumen of Rajaraja Chola and Rajendra Chola I, the Prime Minister said that the heights reached by the emperors were the source of inspiration, providing an ancient road map for India to become a developed nation.

2. To become a developed nation we must prioritise unity, strengthen our navy and defence forces and look for new opportunities while safeguarding our core values.  

3. The Prime Minister also released  a commemorative coin in the  honour of Rajendra Chola I. The king has built Gangaiconda Cholapuram and Cholagangam, a massive lake, after his victorious expedition to the Gangetic plains about a 1000 years ago. 

4. The Prime Minister said that the legacy of Rajaraja Chola and Rajendra Chola is synonymous with India’s identity and pride. The history and heritage of the Chola empire proclaimed the true potential of India. Rajaraja Chola built a powerful Navy. His son Rajendra Chola I strengthened it. The Cholas strengthened local administration and established extensive trade and cultural links. The Chola rulers extended their diplomatic and trade relations to Sri Lanka, the Maldives and South East Asia. 

5. The Prime Minister said that India too accorded the highest priority to national security. The world witnessed the firm and decisive response of the country during operation Sindoor to safeguard its sovereignty. 

Who were Cholas?

1. The Chola Kingdom was situated to the North East of the territory of the Pandays between the Pennar and Vellar rivers. The kingdom sprang up around the third century BC and continued till the second century AD. The chief centre of political power lay at Uraiyur and Puhar. 

2.Elara, a Chola king is set to have conquered Sri Lanka in the second century BC. The most famous Chola kings were Karikal. He built a 160 km long embankment along the Kavery river. However, around the 3rd century AD, the power of Cholas declined.  The Cheras and the Pandyas expanded at the cost of Cholas. The Pallavas rose in Kanchipuram and they wiped out Chola power and so from fourth to ninth century, the Cholas remained feudatory of Pallavas.

3. The founder of the imperial Chola was Vijayalaya. He captured Tanjore in 850 AD and by the end of 9th Century the Cholas had defeated both the Pallavas and Pandyas. Although the Rashkuta king Krishna III defeated the Chola king Parantak I, Cholas recovered rapidly. 

Cholas became the great Naval power 

1. The Cholas built one of the most formidable navies in Indian history. Their ships were designed for both warfare and trade. They were equipped to navigate the open seas and engaged in battles. The Cholas constructed large vessels capable of carrying troops, supplies and trade goods across long distances. Ports like Nagapattinam and Kaveripattinam were hubs for ship building and naval operations. The Cholas established key naval bases around the Coromandel coasts, Sri Lanka, Maldives and Sri Vijaya Empire. 

2. During the rule of Rajaraja (985 - 1014) and Rajendra I (1014-1044). The Cholas built an empire by strengthening its Navy. During their rule, the Bay of Bengal was virtually converted into a Chola lake. Rajaraja Chola conquered the northern part of Sri Lanka. He destroyed the Chera navy at Trivendrum and attacked Quilon. Madurai was captured from Pandyas. Similarly, Maldives was also conquered. During the rule of Rajendra I, the entire Sri Lanka was annexed. Moreover, the Chola army crossed the river Ganga and defeated Pala king.

3. During the period of Rajendra I, Naval expeditions were carried out against the Shri Vijaya kingdom (Malaysia and Indonesia). He established trade with China and the Middle East. They exported spices, textiles and gems, thereby fostering economic prosperity. 

4. Their naval power secured maritime trade routes in the Indian Ocean enhancing their economic dominance. They have effective control over the strait of Malacca and the strait of Harmouz, the two choke points in the Indian Ocean. 

5. Thus, the Chola rose to power through the combination of military conquests, naval dominance, economic prosperity and administrative efficiency. 

6. By the end of the 13th century, the Chola power declined. The resurgence of Pandayas led to the defeat of the Cholas in the battle of Thondi in 1251. As the central authority weakened, the local chieftains and feudatories switched their loyalties to Pandyas. In 1279, the Pandayas captured their capital, Tanjore. Thus, the Chola dynasty was wiped out on account of weak leadership, internal rebellions, military over extension and resurgence of rival powers like Pandays and Hoysalas.  

How can the legacy of Chola Dynasty and its naval supremacy be implemented by the Present Indian Government? 

1. The legacy of the Naval supremacy of Cholas can be emulated and implemented by strengthening the Indian Naval bases in the Indian Ocean. It offers a blueprint for the Indian Government to enhance its maritime strategy, economic growth, cultural diplomacy and governance. By modernising the navy, developing ports, promoting cultural heritage and adopting decentralised governance, India can dominate the Bay of Bengal and the Indian Ocean. It is therefore incumbent that there must be an increase in defence budget for the upgradation of naval bases in order to neutralise the dominance of China in the Indian Ocean. Accelerating the Sagarmala project to modernise ports and coastal shippings is essential to further boost our trade efficiency. Since, the Indian Ocean is the life line for the Indian Economy and a guarantee for the security of our country. India must align with countries of the Indian Ocean region. 

Conclusion 

A Chola model of Naval superiority and administrative decentralisation provide a historical foundation for India to assert itself as a leading maritime and cultural power in the Indian Ocean region. By strengthening the Chola model of decentralisation of power at the grassroot level, India can strengthen its democratic set up further. By focusing upon naval superiority in the Indian Ocean, India can challenge the dominance of China in the Indo-Pacific Region. 

Vice President of India, Powers and Functions.

 Why is it in the news?

14th Vice President of India, Shri Jagdeep Dhankar resigned from his post on the health ground on 21st July 2025. He had two years left for his term to complete. This is the first time that a Vice President tendered his resignation on the health issue. Earlier, V V Giri resigned from the post of Vice President to contest for President of India. R Venket Raman resigned from the Vice President when elected to the President of India in 1987.  

Roles and responsibilities of the Vice President

1. The Vice President of India is the second highest constitutional authority in the country. He acts as the ex-officio chairman of the Rajya Sabha. He acts as the deputy to the President and assumes the duties of the President in the event of resignation, removal, death, impeachment and incapacity.

2. He is elected for five years. He can be re-elected umpteen times. 

3. He presides over Rajya Sabha’s sessions, protecting rights and privileges of members. He cannot act as the chairman while serving as acting President. In case of vacancy or inability of the President, he assumes the President’s duty until a new President is elected. He also serves as the chancellor of Punjab University, Delhi University and visitor of Makhanlal National University. He is also the President of the Indian Institute of Public Administration. In addition, he engages himself in addressing educational institutions, cultural programmes and visits foreign countries as the spokesperson of Government of India. 

Eligibility 

1. To become the Vice President of India, he must be a citizen of India. He must have completed 35 years of age. He must be qualified to be elected as the member of the Rajya Sabha. He must not hold any office of profit under the central, state or local government. However, a President, Governor or Minister in a central or state government can stand for the post of Vice President without resigning. Once he is elected and assumes the charge of Vice President, the previous post held by him is automatically vacated. 

Election process 

1.Vice President is elected by an electoral college consisting of elected and nominated members of both Houses of Parliament on the basis of proportional representation by a single transferable vote. Thus, members of state legislative assemblies do not participate in the election of Vice President as in the case of the election of the President of India. 

Removal process 

The Vice President can be removed by a resolution in the Rajya Sabha after giving him the advance notice of 14 days. Removal would be complete if the Rajya Sabha passes the resolution with an effective majority and agreed to by the Lok Sabha. No specific ground has been mentioned in the constitution for the removal of the Vice President. Thus, there is no need to start impeachment proceedings based on the ground of proven misbehaviour or incapacity in the case of the President of India. An effective majority is the total strength of the House minus Vacancy. For example, if the effective strength of the Rajya Sabha on the date of the voting was 245 and there was a vacancy of ten members. The effective majority would be 245-102+1 = 118. Thus, if the resolution has the support of 118 members, it is deemed to be passed. The resolution must be agreed to by the Lok Sabha by simple majority. A simple majority means the majority of members present and voting. For example, if on the date of voting, 350 members were present in the Lok Sabha and if 50 members absented from voting and 151 members voted in favour of the resolution of removal and 149 members voted against the removal, the resolution would be deemed to have passed. So, the Vice President stands removed by the President of India.   

Comparison between the US and Indian Vice President

1. Vice President in India serves as the Deputy to the President and ex-officio chairman of the Rajya Sabha. He acts  as the President in case of vacancy or incapacity until a new President is elected within six months.  He presides over the Rajya Sabha. He oversees its proceeds and decides on financial bills. He has no direct executive power unless acting as President. He is elected separately by an electoral college consisting of the members of the Lok Sabha and Rajya Sabha for a period of five years which can be renewed. 

2. On the other hand, the US Vice President automatically assumes the presidency if the President dies, resigns or is removed. No new election is required. If he succeeds to the post of Presidentship for more than two years, he will have only one chance to get elected for another term of four years. However, if he succeeds to the post of Presidentship for less than two years, according to 22nd amendment, he is eligible for election to the Presidentship of the US for two terms of four years each, consecutive or non-consecutive.  He presides over the senate and votes only to break ties. He is often assigned specific executive tasks by the President. He is elected on a joint ticket with the President by the electoral college for four years which can be renewed again for four years. He must be a natural born US citizen, at least 35 years old and resident for fourteen years. He can be impeached by congress for high crimes and misdemeanors. He can submit a resignation letter to the secretary to the state. He represents the US at domestic and international events openly assigned by the President. 

Position of the Vice President in our constitution

1. The Vice President ensures constitutional stability. It ensures continuity and neutrality without undermining the Prime Minister’s authority. 

2. Without a Vice President, a presidential vacancy could create constitutional crises in a parliamentary system where the President’s role is integral to legislative and executive processes. Although he is not assigned executive power as in the case of the US Vice President, he still enjoys legislative powers and represents the Union Government in educational institutions, cultural fora and strengthening international relations.  

Conclusion

1. To sum up, the Vice President of India is not a superfluous post. He exerts legislative powers. In addition, he represents the country in the international fora. He ensures continuity in the administration and impartiality in the conduct of the Upper House. In several parliamentary forms of governments, there is no post of Vice President. The Indian Vice President is a unique feature of our Parliamentary Democracy.

What is impeachment ? How judges of higher judiciary are impeached in India?

 Why is it in the news?

1. An in-house inquiry committee consisting of three judges with regard to burnt currency notes found in the storeroom in the official residential premises of the High Court Judge, justice Yashwant Varma was submitted before the Chief Justice of India. The Report was forwarded to the President and the Prime Minister of India by the then Chief Justice of India, Sanjeev Khanna. The report said that Justice Varma and his family members were in covert or active control of access into the storeroom. The report said that the currency notes found during the process of dousing of fire were highly suspicious items. They could not have been placed in the storeroom without the tacit or active consent of justice Varma or his family members. That the store room was under the physical control of Justice Varma and his family members and therefore, any suspicious item found in the store room will have to be accounted for by Justice Varma and his family members.  

2. The report also blamed police officials for slipshod handling of burnt currency notes in the premises of Justice Varma because neither FIR was lodged nor a seizure memo was prepared on the scene of crime. The higher police officials explained the inaction by pointing out the sensitivity of the issue and the absence of Justice Varma at his residence at the time of incident. 

3. An impeachment proceeding against Justice Varma is expected to be introduced in Parliament during the Monsoon session for his removal.

  

What is impeachment?

1. Impeachment is a constitutional mechanism for removing certain high ranking constitutional functionaries from office for defined grounds such as misbehaviour, incapacity or violation of the constitution. The process is designed to ensure accountability while protecting the independence of key constitutional bodies. It is a procedure which involves voting in a Parliament and judicial inquiry. 

2. In India, the President of India (Article 61) can be impeached for the violation of the constitution. The Vice President of India, under article 67 (b) can be removed by resolution passed by majority of total membership of the Rajya Sabha and agreed by simple majority in the Lok Sabha. 

3. The Supreme Court Judges under article 124 (4) and High Court judges under article 217 (1) (b), Chief Election Commissioner under article 324 (5), Comptroller and Auditor General of India under article 148 (1),   can be removed on the grounds of proved misbehaviour or incapacity. 

4. Other constitutional functionaries like UPSC Chairman and members, State PSCs Chairmen and members, Chairman of  National Commissions of SCs, STs and Backward classes and Chairman and members of Finance Commission are not removed through impeachment process because Parliament is not involved in their removal. Instead, they can be removed on the grounds of misbehaviour like insolvency , unauthorised paid employment, misconduct ,incapacity like infirmity of mind and body. The President of India refers allegations against the concerned constitutional authority to the Supreme Court which conducts judicial inquiry. He may suspend the accused constitutional authority till the inquiry is completed. 

5.The accused constitutional authority is given an opportunity to defend himself. If charges are proved, the President may issue a removal order of the concerned authority. However, the President may accept or may not accept the findings of the Judicial inquiry. 

6. Constitutional authorities like the Prime Minister of India do not attract impeachment, process for his removal. He stays in office as long as he enjoys the majority in the Lok Sabha. Governor of a state and Attorney General of India hold their office till the pleasure of the President of India. The Speaker of the Lok Sabha/ Deputy Chairman of the Rajya Sabha can be removed by simple majority just after giving 14 days’ advance notice. They do not undergo the process of impeachment for their removal. 

What is the procedure of impeachment of judges of the Supreme Court and High Courts in India?

1. The impeachment process for both the Supreme Court and High Courts judges is the same

2. A judge of the Supreme Court or High Court can be removed only on grounds of proved misbehaviour or incapacity. Proven misbehaviour is not defined in our constitution. It may include corruption, misconduct, partiality, favour, nepotism and faulty application of law. Similarly, incapacity means both physical and mental disability which hampers in the performance of his judicial duties. 

3. The process begins with a motion which can be introduced in either House of the Parliament. The motion must be signed by at least 100 members of the Lok Sabha or at least 50 members of the Rajya Sabha. The motion must specify the charges against the concerned judge and must be accompanied with supporting evidence. If the motion is presented in the Lok Sabha, the Speaker decides whether to admit or not. If it is presented in the Rajya Sabha, it is chairman (Vice President) decides with regard to the admissibility of the motion. 

4. Once admitted, the Speaker/Chairman constitutes a three member judicial inquiry committee under the judge inquiry Act, 1968, consisting of Chief Justice of India or his nominee, the senior most judge of the Supreme Court, a Chief Justice of a High Court and a distinguished jurist. The committee conducts a detailed inquiry giving the accused judge an opportunity to respond. It collects evidence, examines witnesses and records findings. The committee submits its report to the Speaker/ the Chairman stating whether the charges are substantiated or not. 

5. If the committee finds the judge guilty of the charges, the impeachment motion is taken up for debate and voting in the House where it was introduced. The accused judge/ or his representative is also given the opportunity to participate in the debate and respond to the charges labelled against it. After the end of the debate motion is presented for voting in the House. It must be passed by special majority in both Houses of Parliament in the same session. A Special majority means a majority of the total membership of each House and at least two  thirds of the members present and voting in each House. The motion must be passed separately in both the Lok Sabha and Rajya Sabha. For example, if a motion of impeachment for the removal of a judge of a High Court/ Supreme Court is brought in the Rajya Sabha, and if the total membership of the Rajya Sabha at that point of time is 242 then the motion must be passed by at least 122 members. If at the time of voting there are 180 members in the Rajya Sabha, the  motion must be passed by at least 120 members present and voting. If both the conditions are fulfilled, this is called special majority. 

6. If both Houses of the Parliament pass the motion with special majority in the same session against the accused judge, it is presented before the President of India. He has no option but to issue an order for the removal of the judge. 

Defects of impeachment proceedings of judges of Higher judiciary of India

1. Excessive High thresholds - The impeachment proceedings against judges of Supreme Court and High Courts require the motion to be signed by 100 Lok Sabha or 50 Rajya Sabha MPs, followed by a special majority. 

2. Political influence and partitionship - A political party having majority in both Houses of Parliament can use the impeachment process as a tool for political vendetta against judges who deliver judgements against the government interests. Conversely, judges aligned with the ruling party may favour them and put the opposition parties at the dock. This may compromise fairness in the delivery of justice. 

3. Lengthy and Cumbersome process - The impeachment proceedings in India go through different stages of investigation, parliamentary debate and voting. This causes undue delay in the delivery of justice and thus, it loses effectiveness.

4. Ambiguity in defining misbehaviour - The impeachment proceedings can be initiated on the grounds of proved misbehaviour or incapacity but proved misbehaviour has not been defined. It leads to ambiguity among MPs and so, it becomes difficult to arrive at consensus in initiating impeachment against the erring constitutional authority. 

5. Limited transparency - Chairman of the Rajya Sabha/ Speaker of the Lok Sabha may or may not accept the impeachment motion without giving detailed reason as to why the motion is not being accepted. Similarly, the proceedings of the inquiry committee are not as open as trials of the senate in the US. 

6. Lack of the role of civil society - The impeachment process is driven by Parliament and the judiciary. There is no formal role for civil society. Therefore, lack of public participation limits responsiveness towards judicial misconduct. 

7. Lack of alternative mechanism - Impeachment is the only constitutional mechanism to remove the Supreme Court/ High Court judge with no provision for lesser penalties. The absence of a graduated disciplinary framework limits the system's availability to address varying degrees of misconduct. 

How judges of higher judiciary are impeached in other countries? 

1. In the USA, the Supreme Court judges can be removed on the charge of treason, bribery, other high crimes and misdemeanours. Any member of the House of Representative can initiate the motion of impeachment based upon allegation of misconduct. A House Judicial Committee investigates the charge and gathers evidence. If the charge is substantiated , the motion is debated in the House. The impeachment proceeding is passed by a simple majority of 51% of members present and voting. Thereafter, the Senate conducts a trial, which is presided by the Chief Justice of the US. If the Chief Justice is the accused, the Vice President presides over the trial. After the conclusion of the trial the motion is put for vote in the Senate. If the motion is passed with 2/3rd majority, the accused judge stands removed from his office. The Senate may also vote to disqualify the accused judge from holding future public office. 

2. In Pakistan, allegations are referred to the Supreme Judicial council under article 209, which consists of the Chief Justice of Pakistan as Chairman, two senior most Supreme Court Judges and two senior most High Court Chief Justices. Reference of allegation can be made by the President, Prime Minister or Supreme Judicial Council itself based on complaints. The SJC conducts a judicial inquiry. If the SJC finds the judge guilty of misconduct and incapacity it submits a report to the President. The President must remove the judge if the SJC recommends removal. The SJC may recommend suspension of the accused judge during inquiry subject to the Presidential approval. SJC decisions are generally final but Supreme Court review is possible for procedural irregularities. 

3. In the UK, judges of the Supreme Court can be removed on the grounds of misbehaviour or incapacity. Misbehaviour includes corruption, criminal conviction, ethical breaches and persistent failure to perform duties. Incapacity includes both physical and mental inability to perform judicial functions. Complaints are handled by the judicial conduct investigations office (JCIO) an independent body or by the Lord Chancellor or Lord Chief Justice. After the investigation if the charge is substantiated, there is the requirement of agreement of the Lord Chancellor and Lord Chief Justice. Thereafter, the king removed the accused judge through a notification. Thus, no parliamentary vote is required like in India. The accused judge may be suspended during investigation. 

4. In Australia, a judge of the Supreme Court can be removed by simple majority separately passed by both Houses of Parliament, the grounds for impeachment is proved misbehaviour or incapacity. The impeachment proceedings can be initiated by Attorney General or Government or Parliamentary motion. After the motion is accepted, a commission of judges and experts are constituted to investigate the allegation labelled against the accused judge. If the charge is substantiated, the motion is put for vote in both Houses of Parliament, if passed by simple majority in both Houses separately, the Governor General removes the accused judge. No federal judge has been removed through the impeachment process since 1901.  

Ways Forward 

1. The cumbersome process of impeachment proceedings against judges can be supplemented by creating a national judicial and constitutional oversight commission consisting of retired Supreme Court judges, former Chief Election Commissioner and independent experts. 

2. The grounds for impeachment like proved misbehaviour must be codified so that ambiguity is removed. In addition, a code of conduct for judges should be enforced. 

3. There is a need to suspend judges during inquiries. 

4. There is a need to enhance transparency in the conduct of the inquiry committee  and curtailment of discretionary power of the speaker of Lok Sabha/ Chairman of Rajya Sabha. 

5. There is a need to reduce the threshold of special majority to be substituted by simple majority as it obtains in the UK/ Australia. 

6. There is a need to prevent resignation tendered by an accused judge while the motion of impeachment is in the progress. 

Conclusion 

1. Impeachment proceedings against judges of the Supreme Court and High Courts  in India suffer from high thresholds, political bias, ambiguous grounds, opacity and absence of public input. There is a need to  establish an independent judicial body for handling complaints, introducing graduated sanctions, codifying grounds, enhancing transparency and reducing 2/3rd majority to simple majority vote in both Houses of Parliament. 

Iran-Israel War : Causes and Impact on India and World Economy

 

Why is it in the news?

1. Israel launched a blistering attack on Iran’s nuclear and military structure on 13th June 2025, thereby, killing top Generals and Scientists. The attack was meant to stop Iran from making atomic weapons. About 200 aircrafts were involved in the initial attack on about 100 targets. Israel attacked Iran’s main nuclear enrichment facility at Natanz. Israel also claimed that it destroyed dozens of radar installations and surface to air missile launchers in western Iran. The Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu vowed that operation Rising Lion would continue for as many days as it takes to remove Iran’s nuclear weapons programme because it was described as an existential threat to the Jews state.  

2. Iran immediately retaliated by sending a swarm of drones to Israel. It is reported that Iranian Missiles have heavily damaged Israeli port city of Haifa and its capital Tel Aviv. 

3. India is deeply concerned about the situation in West Asia after Israel claimed that it carried out attacks on multiple targets in Iran. India urged both sides to avoid any escalation steps. India enjoys close and friendly relations with both the countries and stands ready to stand all possible support. India urged both the countries to use dialogue and diplomacy towards de-escalation of situation and resolving underlying issues.The embassy of India in Iran had urged Indian citizens to remain vigilant and avoid all unnecessary movements.  Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) condemned the military strikes carried out by Israel. However, India distanced itself and did not participate in the discussion. 

4. Left parties on the other hand urged the Union Government to condemn Israel otherwise silence will be seen as complicity. The party said that attack could spark a broader regional conflict and create more instability in west Asia.  

5. Iran finds itself politically isolated in the region. Many Arab states are as concerned as Israel about Iran’s nuclear ambitions. Moreover, the Atomic Energy Agency passed a resolution declaring Iran in violation of its legal obligations under the nuclear non-proliferation treaty and dangerously close to acquiring nuclear weapons. Several Arab and Muslim majority nations including Algeria, Bangladesh, Indonesia, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and Turkey did not oppose the resolution instead they quickly condemned Israeli strikes. 

Causes of Conflict between Iran and Israel

1. Ideological and religious rivalry : Islamic revolution in Iran in 1979 turned it into a Shia theocracy. It strongly opposes Israel as an illegitimate zionist entity and so it wants to wipe out Israel. Israel, on the other hand, thinks the orthodox Islamist ideology of Iran as an existential threat to it and so there is deep rooted animosity between two countries. Apart from ideology, the divergent religious affiliations further add to their enmity. Both countries want a favourable balance of power in West Asia.  Thus, Iran opposes Abraham accords of UAE, Behren, Saudi Arabia with Israel. So, since the founding of Islamic Republic in 1979, both countries are at lower heads. Over the decades Iran has popped up regional proxies to ensure a severe but cost effective military option vis-a-vis Israel. Iran created, co-opted and emboldened several non-state players committed to Israel's defeat.  Through this proxy war, Iran has successfully expanded its influence beyond its territorial limits and its sphere of influence can be felt not only in the immediate vicinity of the Persian Gulf but also in the Mediterranean sea, the Red sea and the Northern Arabian Sea. 

2. Nuclear threat of Iran :  Israel views Iran’s nuclear programme as an existential threat. It apprehends that a nuclear armed Iran would target it. It claimed that Iran had enough enriched uranium for making multiple nuclear bombs. In addition, Iran non-complied with the nuclear non-proliferation agreements put forward by the International Atomic Energy Agency [IAEA]. This prompted Israel to launch preemptive strikes on 13th June under the code name of operation Rising Lion. Israel struck  nuclear sites like Natanz, Khondab and Isfahan. The strike was meant to prevent Iran from crossing the nuclear threshold. 

3. Weakening of the Axis of Resistance headed by Iran :  Iran has been supporting anti-Israel groups like Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon, Houthis in Yemen, popular mobilisation forces in Iraq and Assad Regime in Syria. In spite of the military offensive, Israel has not been able to defeat Hamas in the Gaza strip, Hezbollah in Lebanon. PMFin Iraq. The destruction of several infrastructure including Sanaa airport has not forced the Houthis to seek a truce with Israel. So, now Israel now seeks to minimise the long term potential of these militant groups by targeting the source of their political legitimacy and military support. According to Israel, Iran supported Axis of Resistance cannot be defeated without directly confronting Iran. The direct confrontation between Iran and Israel in April and October 2024 did not significantly alter the situation. Moreover, the increasing power of Iran further compelled Gulf countries led by Saudi Arabia to bury their hatchet against Israel and so these Sunni Arab countries moved closer to Israel. Looking to the above favourable condition, Israel this time decided to target Iran itself. 

4. Domestic political pressure : Experts are of the view that the decision of the Prime Minister Netanyahu to strike at Iran was driven by domestic politics. Since, the Prime Minister is facing corruption charges. He wants to prolong the war with Iran. The main aim is to overthrow the orthodox Islamic regime of Ayatollah Khamenei. This would bring popularity of the PM among Israeli people. 

5.Immediate provocation - the accelerated production of ballistic missiles by Iran was construed as a threat to Israel. The seizure of Israeli linked ships in 2024 by Iran and support for Houthi attacks on Israeli ships further heightened tensions. The failure of US-Iran nuclear talks, bombing of Iranian consulate in Damascus in April 2024 by Israel and retaliatory missile attacks at Israel in October 2024 for assassinations of Hamas and Hezbollah leaders further escalated tensions between both countries. 

Impact on India

1. Rising oil prices : Since India imports 80% of its oil for its domestic needs and since 40% oil imports come from the Middle East, a prolonged war between Israel and Iran would lead to a spike in oil prices. It is expected that the oil prices had jumped to $75 per barrel. It should be noted that oil prices above $80 per barrel would increase the import bill by $10-15 billion, thereby widening the trade deficit. In addition, the higher fuel cost can drive inflation leading to rise in consumer prices and industrial costs. 

2. Weakening of Rupees : A higher import bill would weaken the Indian Rupee, despite strong forex reserves. A depreciating rupee would raise import cost for non-oil goods, thereby impacting MSME sectors. 

3. Trade disruption, a prolonged Iran-Israel war will have an impact upon India’s trade with Israel since India exports petroleum products heavily. Disruption in the supply chain would further hit India’s export of petroleum products to Israel. Moreover, the protected war would threaten India’s energy security. 

4. Migrant workers and evacuation : About 1600 Indian students are studying in Iran. 183 pilgrims are stranded in Iraq. They require urgent evacuation. Moreover, prolonged Iran-Israel war will have an impact upon remittances sent to India. It should be noted that more than 8 million Indian workers are employed in Gulf Countries and around $125 billion remittances are sent by them to India. Any disruption will have an impact upon the economy of India and especially Kerala. 

Impact on World Economy

1. Oil market volatility : The prolonged war would push the oil prices to $100-150 per barrel, leading to stagflation. It is feared that attack upon oil wells of Iran by Israel may cause severe affect upon the overall oil production. It should be noted that Iran exports $2.5 million barrels per day. 

2. Inflation and Growth : Rising oil prices may lead to inflationary trend in the Global economy and may lead to slow global GDP growth. 

3. Financial markets : On account of the Iran Israel war, global stock markets plumated sharply. Investors took their money from the banking institutions to purchase gold and dollars. 

4. Disruption in Supply chain : Prolonged Israel-Iran war would further impact industries worldwide dependent upon petroleum products. 

5. Fear of arms race in West Asia : The withdrawal of Iran from the non-proliferation treaty would spark arms race thereby, destabilising markets and diverting resources. 

Ways Out 

1. Diplomatic De-escalation : Since India has very good relations with Iran and Israel, it should take the lead in pushing for a ceasefire. Both the UN and BRICS countries can take initiatives for the normalisation of relationship between two countries. 

2. Energy Diversification : India should accelerate renewable energy and boost domestic oil production in order to reduce its dependence on oil imports.  Nations should have strategic petroleum reserves to stabilise prices. 

3. Economic stabilisation : An effort should be made to provide subsidies on fuel to give relief to consumers. Central banks across countries must coordinate to mitigate inflation spikes. Reserve Bank of India, should manage rupee volatility through forex interventions. Similar steps should be taken by central banks of other countries. 

4. Humanitarian and evacuation plans : India must prioritise evacuating stranded citizens through airlifts and sea routes by coordinating with Gulf Countries. The UN should provide a safe route for refugees living in adjoining countries of Israel and Iran. 

5. Strengthening regional alliances : India should deepen its ties further with Saudi Arabia and UAE to secure alternative oil supplies. India and EU should also mediate to prevent US-China proxy escalation.

Conclusion 

1. The Iran-Israel war threatens global stability and economic recovery. Rising oil prices, trade disruptions and stranded citizens pose immediate challenges. The prolonged conflict may pose global stagflation, market turmoil and nuclear arms race. India should play a proactive role to keep the balancing act between Israel and Iran. Israel is a trusted friend of India. It is the third largest military hardware supplier to India after Russia and France, India is dependent upon Iran for huge oil imports and Chabahar ports which would connect it with Afghanistan and Central Asian countries. A prolonged war would further escalate oil prices in India and worldwide leading to the inflationary trend in the economy and slowing down of the economy worldwide.